Comparing the Districts of Toronto

This week we saw a map of Toronto’s subway system with the average house cost associated with each stop. These types of maps get the city talking, as many people assume proximity to the subway line ensures stability in housing prices. To test this theory, we have examined the districts of Toronto as divided by TREB and how they fared in 2018 to see if the subway line offered the strongest returns.

TREB Map of Toronto’s Districts

treb toronto map
detached mapSource: TREB, Six Housing Sense

The detached benchmark price in Toronto increased by just 1.1%, and while that did beat the TREB benchmark gain of 0.2%, it was not the gain homeowners were hoping for. Looking through the Toronto districts to see where the strongest gains were, we see that Line 2 (Bloor/Danforth) offered far more reliable results than Line 1 (Yonge / University). The areas along the east-west line provided gains that outperformed the rest of the city. In comparison, Line 1 grew significantly weaker as it moved north, with the top of the city seemingly impacted by the price decreases of York Region. Overall the map shows regional performances with the south of the city doing better than the north and the west better than the east.
condo mapSource: TREB, Six Housing Sense

The condo benchmark price for the entire city went up 10.2% in 2018 with varying levels of success spread out in different pockets of the city. Unlike the detached market that had clear north, south, east, west results, the condo sector offered successes and failures in each area. The highest year-over-year gains can be seen everywhere from midtown to Scarborough and on the Danforth over to North Etobicoke. In comparison, the lower results did skew to the top of the city, though the Beaches also had below average returns.

Detached Top 5 Districts

Condo Top 5 Districts

District Detached Condos District Condos Detached
C08 1st 19th C09 1st 22nd
W02 2nd 6th E01 2nd 4th
W01 3rd 11th W05 3rd 18th
E01 4th 2nd C11 4th 20th
C01 5th 16th E04 5th 29th

Source: Six Housing Sense

The maps also showed that detached success did not guarantee condo success and condo success specifically did not translate into strong results in the detached sector. The top five detached districts were predominately clustered near the center of the city, which is why it is not surprising the condo results in those districts were almost entirely in the top half of results. However, of the top five condo districts, only one also had detached price growth in the top half.

In 2018, it is hard to say that proximity to the subway system offered any real help to housing prices. Line 2 delivered results for the detached market, while Line 1 did not protect detached prices at all. Likewise, massive condo price gains were seen throughout the city, seemingly with no regard to what kind of transit a condo was close to. We shall see how these trends continue if the market does start to slow in 2019.

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