Vancouver/Toronto Time Shift: Months of Inventory Comparison

In our post on Toronto’s Housing Inventory we looked at the last five years of Toronto’s months of inventory statistics for the detached and condo markets. The data showed the 2018 inventory levels high for the detached market and slowly rising again in the condo market. This gave us some information on what to expect for 2019 for Toronto but not a lot. So, as we frequently do on this site, to speculate where Toronto’s future maybe may be heading, we will once again turn to our time shift comparison with Vancouver.

The first graphs show the months of inventory statistics for the detached and condo markets from City of Vancouver and City of Toronto (not the greater areas) with no time shift.

vanto d moi statsSource: TREB, Vancitycondoguide.com, Six Housing Sense

vanto c moi statsSource: TREB, Vancitycondoguide.com, Six Housing Sense

From the raw numbers there appears to be very little similarity between the two cities. However, as we break out the numbers further alignment starts to appear. Looking at the two cities for their year-over-year changes and performance against the five-year average MOIs for each month, similarities develop. To illustrate this point, the graphs below compare the two cities using a nine-month time shift.

vanto d yoy moiSource: TREB, Vancitycondoguide.com, Six Housing Sense
(Vancouver Jan 2015 to present, Toronto Oct 2015 to present)

vanto d 5y moiSource: TREB, Vancitycondoguide.com, Six Housing Sense
(Vancouver Jan 2014 to present, Toronto Oct 2014 to present)

The graph lines are not exactly on top of each other; however, the nine-month time shift continues to show aligned market performances. If Toronto’s MOI continues to stay in a working relationship with Vancouver’s yearly changes, 2019 should see a rise in detached inventory, likely well above the five-year average.

vanto c yoy moiSource: TREB, Vancitycondoguide.com, Six Housing Sense
(Vancouver Jan 2015 to present, Toronto Oct 2015 to present)

vanto c 5y moiSource: TREB, Vancitycondoguide.com, Six Housing Sense
(Vancouver Jan 2014 to present, Toronto Oct 2014 to present)

Just like the detached market showed, the condo markets from the two cities have high overlap. Given how suppressed the condo market supply has been over the past couple of years in Toronto, these graphs point to welcomed news for potential buyers. That said, just because Toronto has been tracking behind Vancouver by nine months for the past few years, does not necessarily mean it will continue in 2019.

The nine-month time shift comparison can not be taken as a guarantee for Toronto’s future performance, it is merely an interesting trend to follow. That said, as we see greater and greater alignment of global housing markets it is far from impossible that the two cities are moving in parallel, even if at slightly staggered times. Toronto and Vancouver may be different cities in different regions of Canada, but it can not be denied that there are similarities in their housing markets and the factors that are influencing them. Our time shifted comparison analysis continues to demonstrate this time and time again. As we enter the 2019 housing market, this trend is something we will continue to keep our eye on.

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