A Decade of Increasing Prices

Ten years ago, 46% of homes in the Greater Toronto Area sold for under $300,000, while a mere 1% of homes cost over one million dollars. Five years ago, just 19% of all homes sold were under $300,000 and 7% were over $1,000,000. And last month, only 1% of the homes sold in the GTA were for less than $300,000, while a staggering 19% were million dollar homes. In just 10 years the number of homes that sold for under $300,000 has fallen from 2,381 to just 95, while at the same time the city went from having just 77 homes sold for over a million in October 2008 to having 1,459 for the same month in 2018.

The table below shows the breakdown of sales by dollar value for the month of October for each year shown. From the table we see that just 10 years ago 4,501 of the sales reported by TREB sold for under half a million dollars. Fast forward to today, that number decreased to 1,670. Likewise, the number of homes that sold for over $1.5 million increased by 1,646% from 28 to 489.

Price 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Under $300,000 2,381 2,082 1,425 1,318 720 95
$300,000 – $500,000 2,120 2,900 2,954 3,118 2,586 1,575
$500,000 – $700,000 480 1,135 1,439 2,091 2,421 2,238
$700,000 – $1,000,000 97 286 700 1,222 2,169 2,125
$1,000,000 – $1,500,000 49 177 240 521 1,129 970
Over $1,500,000 28 101 138 282 743 489

Source: TREB, Six Housing Sense

In terms of percentages, the following chart shows the distribution of sales as a share of the total market. The blue line, representing sales for under $300,000, has had the largest fall. As mentioned previously, sales in this price range made up 46% in October 2008 in comparison to their 1% share last month. As a sign of both price growth and more condos coming onto the market, the biggest gain in share came from the $500,000 to $700,000 range. This price point has seen its percentage of sales increase five times over from 11% to 58%. Finally, the yellow line showing sales for over $1,000,000 got off the ground and into the game. In 2008, it was only 1% of the market, but today it boasts 19% of all the sales in the GTA.

Price Market ShareSource: TREB, Six Housing Sense

In many ways this information is nothing we already didn’t know. With the doubling of average prices over the last decade, it goes without saying that lower priced homes are a shrinking percentage of the market. This is terrible news for first time buyers or lower (or average or above average) waged workers and great news for anyone who has benefited from the price wave. However, there is a small margin of hope for newcomers to the market. As a percentage of total sales, million-dollar homes have barely grown in the last two years. The price peak of early 2017 remains the current price to beat for the GTA, so the upper end of the market remains steady. Unfortunately, with the ever increasing cost of the average condo, the entry point continues to rise and that is becoming the problem of the day.

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