October Housing Figures Analysis

As has been the case in recent months, the October housing data offered a little something for everyone with its statistics.  For those that want to see a strong housing market that has fully recovered, prices and sales were both up year over year.  However, for those hoping for affordability to return to our city, the average sale price for both detached homes and condos in Toronto fell slightly from September and is otherwise at or below higher prices achieved earlier this year.

To better understand the average sale price for Toronto, we have once again examined how the percentage of sales was split throughout the four housing types.

Type of Home Percentage of Total Sales
October 2018 September 2018 October 2017
Detached 29.4% 27.1% 28.3%
Semi-detached 11.0% 10.4% 9.9%
Townhouses 9.1% 10.2% 9.9%
Condos 50.6% 52.3% 51.8%

Source: TREB

This breakdown shows a higher percentage of the total sales made up by detached homes at the expense of the condo segment’s share.  While the overall year over year average price increase of just over $50,000 to $869,870 can be attributed to gains across all four segments, around 20% of the increase is due to the shifting percentages. It will be interesting to see if the condo share will fall below 50% in the coming months, as total sales remain below recent averages.

As mentioned at the beginning of this post, prices may be up year over year, but they are not up month over month for Toronto.

Housing Sector October September
Detached $ 1,311,265 $1,342,363
Semis $ 1,026,829 $ 995,951
Townhouses $ 766,718 $ 743,721
Condos $ 603,153 $ 615,582

Source: TREB

The average price for the month only increased due to the larger percentage of detached homes sold in October than September.  Otherwise we see a split market with detached and condo prices dropping, while semis and townhouses prices went up.  It is far from uncommon for prices to fluctuate from month to month, which is why the year over year comparison is the number people focus on.  However, these October prices for detached homes and condos demonstrate relatively flat growth since April in prices.  For detached homes, prices are actually down over $100,000 from their May peak.  Condos on the other hand are up $349 in comparison to May.

Through our Toronto/Vancouver comparison series of posts we will be tracking to see if Toronto continues to follow in Vancouver’s footsteps.  If it does, Toronto should begin to see larger housing inventories and sliding prices.  If this comes true, these October numbers might not be the strong fall rebound the housing industry was hoping for.

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